It’s that time again. Tick, Tock.
One of Herblock’s creepy anthropomorphic H-bombs, from 1962. From the Library of Congress.
Every year, the editors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists get together to discuss whether, and how much, they should adjust their famed Doomsday Clock, ticking down to atomic midnight.
One of the coolest things about my recent relocation to Washington, DC, was being invited to attend the symposium (just as an audience-member) for the clock-changing event. I’m eagerly looking forward to it.
The last time the BAS folks changed the clock, in 2010, they turned it back by 1 minute, because of “worldwide cooperation to reduce nuclear arsenals and limit effect of climate change.” Ah, such optimistic times! Only six minutes to midnight, still.
I would be inclined to shave that gained minute back again, at the very least, putting us at five minutes to midnight. My reasons are:
- Possible political instability in North Korea following the sudden death of Dear Leader and the replacement with his young and untested son.
- Constant drum-beating in the West for war with Iran, despite not much evidence that their program has been doing anything urgent since 2003.
- Iran’s apparent continued push for latent nuclear weapons capability. (Which is problematic both for its own sake, and the possible effects it has with regards to Western intervention, sanctions, etc., which are ratcheting things up on all sides over there.)
- The efforts towards mitigating climate change have been fickle at best and seem to be losing public interest as the attentions turn entirely to the economy. I don’t actually see the United States, much less the rest of the world, actually getting their act together on this anytime soon.
- Pakistan-US relations seem to be getting especially testy, which bodes ill.
Or to put it another way, I think things are at least as bad as they were in 2007; I think the 2010 change was too optimistic. None of the above is terribly clever analysis, I’d be the first to admit. But it’s about the same level of “ripped from the headlines” analysis that seems to have affected past clock changes.
But that’s just me, and I’m a natural cynic. My views on the future vacillate between the pessimistic and the middling.
I’ll be eager to see what other people have to say on this, at the symposium. I’ll even try to update the blog with the positions I find most interesting, if I get the chance to. So check back at the end of the day for a bit more.
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